Totals Betting Picks of Week 7 College Football 2014

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2014 College Football Picks Week 5 Totals

College football “Totals” betting is not as popular as betting on point spreads (sides), but the well-informed Totals bettor can do quite well. There were 54 FBS college football games played in Week 5. This article summarizes some of our analysis of the Totals betting in those games. In reading the percentages cited in this article, it is important to note that the breakeven point in college football betting is beating the spread at the rate of 52.38%. (The standard sportsbook requires $110 wagered for every $100 to be won.) Therefore, any percentage above 52.38% should be considered winning, while anything below 52.38% should be considered losing for any bettor’s college football picks.

Totals, aka Over/Unders

Each college football season, the public proves that is loves betting the “Over” for Totals. Whatever the reason, in 10 seasons leading up to this 2014 season (from 2004-2013), a majority of the public bet the Total Over in 86.2% of all college football games. Now that more college football teams are utilizing an up-tempo and/or no-huddle offense, betting the Over might look even more attractive. In Week 5 of this 2014 season, the Total went Over 23 times, the Total went Under 28 times, and there were 3 pushes (ties). Therefore (excluding the pushes), the Over was correct in 45.1% of the games.

Based on closing lines from 2004-2013, the average collegefootball Total was 53.33. Last season (2013-2014), that average went up to 56.77. The average Total in Week 5 of this season was 56.89. Looking for value in the Totals data prompted us to examine some extremes. For this week, when the Total closed at less than 50 points, the Over was correct AND incorrect six times while pushing once. Therefore, for those low Totals, the Over was correct 50% of the time. When the Total closed at 65 points or higher, the Over was correct AND incorrect four times, once again, 50%.

How the Public Bet

Noting how the public bets Totals in any given week can be revealing. Consistent with that historical tendency to bet Overs, Week 5 was no exception. A majority of the public bet the Over 90.74% of the time! In an effort to determine if that simple majority is misleading, we looked at Overs that had at least a 70% public majority. Those Totals went Over 13 times; Under 16 times, and pushed twice. By percentage, when at least 70% of the public bet on the Over, they were correct just 44.83% of the time in Week 5. When examining the opposite extreme, there were just three games where the Over had less than 50% of the public betting (which is to say that they bet the Under). Two went over and one pushed. Therefore, when a public majority bet the under, they were not right at all this week.

Week 5’s Betting Totals Final Analysis

Once again, the public bet the Over in droves, yet the Under was correct 54.9% of the time. With the onset of fall and its changing weather, coupled with more injuries as the season advances, it will be interesting to see if Under continue to be the right side.

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College Football Picks 2014 : Week 2 Totals

At CollegeFootballWinning.com, we pride ourselves on utilizing both betting data and on-field performance data to make our college football picks. Betting “Totals” in college football is not as popular as betting point spreads, but for those who have the expertise, the Totals betting market can be at least as profitable. Week 2 of 2014 had 74 college football games on which there were posted betting lines, but only 64 of those games had readily available Totals betting lines. This article serves as a summary of the college football Totals betting data associated with those 64 games. The reader should understand that the breakeven point in standard college football betting (which requires the bettor to wager $110 for every $100 in desired winnings) is 52.38%. Any cited percentage greater than 52.38% should be considered winning to the NCAA football bettor, while any percentage less than 52.38% should be considered losing.

Overs and Unders

The public loves betting the “Over” in college football. For a combined score in any matchup to go beyond the posted Total seems easier for most people to envision. In fact, for the 10 seasons leading up to this 2014-2015 college football year (from 2004-2013), for their NCAA football picks, a public majority bet the Over in 86.2% of all of games. With college football teams employing more up-tempo, no-huddle offenses than ever, betting the Over might seem even more appealing to the average (perhaps, uninformed) college football bettor. In Week 2 of the college football season, the Total went Over 32 times, the Under was correct 31 times, and there was one “push” (i.e. a tie). Without the push, the Over was correct 50.79% of the time.

For the 10 seasons leading up to 2014-2015, the average closing college football betting Total was 53.33. Last season (2013-2014), that average moved up to 56.77. The average closing betting Total in Week 2 of this season was 57.46. In pursuit of value, it might be informative to explore some (relative) extremes in those posted totals. In Week 2 college football matchups where the closing betting Total was less than 50 combined points, the Over was correct three times and incorrect five. For those low Totals, the Over was correct 37.5% of the time. In college football matchups where the closing betting Total was at least 65 combined points, the Over was correct eight times and incorrect six times. For those high Totals, the Over was correct 57.14% of the time.

Public Betting

Tracking Totals results according to how the public bets can be revealing. The college football public’s love for Overs was evident once again in Week 2. The public bet the Over in 85.94% of all Week 2 NCAA football games. Sometimes, however, a simple majority can be misleading. Overs that had at least 70% of the public betting beat the posted Total 9 times and lost (went Under) 14 times. In all, in betting matchups with a majority of at least 70% on the Over, the public was correct 39.13% of the time. Overs that had less than 50% of the public betting (in other words, the public majority bet the Under) beat the posted Total four times and lost (went Under) four times. In all, in betting matchups with a majority of the public betting on the Under, the public was correct 50% of the time.

Final Analysis: Week 2 Betting Totals

Analyzing the Week 2 college football betting Totals data reveals that betting against the extreme (at least 70%) majority (contrarian betting) on Totals would have resulted in the very profitable winning rate of 60.87%. This was not the case in Week 1. We will continue to monitor contrarian betting in Week 3.