College Football Picks 2014 : Week 2 Totals

At CollegeFootballWinning.com, we pride ourselves on utilizing both betting data and on-field performance data to make our college football picks. Betting “Totals” in college football is not as popular as betting point spreads, but for those who have the expertise, the Totals betting market can be at least as profitable. Week 2 of 2014 had 74 college football games on which there were posted betting lines, but only 64 of those games had readily available Totals betting lines. This article serves as a summary of the college football Totals betting data associated with those 64 games. The reader should understand that the breakeven point in standard college football betting (which requires the bettor to wager $110 for every $100 in desired winnings) is 52.38%. Any cited percentage greater than 52.38% should be considered winning to the NCAA football bettor, while any percentage less than 52.38% should be considered losing.

Overs and Unders

The public loves betting the “Over” in college football. For a combined score in any matchup to go beyond the posted Total seems easier for most people to envision. In fact, for the 10 seasons leading up to this 2014-2015 college football year (from 2004-2013), for their NCAA football picks, a public majority bet the Over in 86.2% of all of games. With college football teams employing more up-tempo, no-huddle offenses than ever, betting the Over might seem even more appealing to the average (perhaps, uninformed) college football bettor. In Week 2 of the college football season, the Total went Over 32 times, the Under was correct 31 times, and there was one “push” (i.e. a tie). Without the push, the Over was correct 50.79% of the time.

For the 10 seasons leading up to 2014-2015, the average closing college football betting Total was 53.33. Last season (2013-2014), that average moved up to 56.77. The average closing betting Total in Week 2 of this season was 57.46. In pursuit of value, it might be informative to explore some (relative) extremes in those posted totals. In Week 2 college football matchups where the closing betting Total was less than 50 combined points, the Over was correct three times and incorrect five. For those low Totals, the Over was correct 37.5% of the time. In college football matchups where the closing betting Total was at least 65 combined points, the Over was correct eight times and incorrect six times. For those high Totals, the Over was correct 57.14% of the time.

Public Betting

Tracking Totals results according to how the public bets can be revealing. The college football public’s love for Overs was evident once again in Week 2. The public bet the Over in 85.94% of all Week 2 NCAA football games. Sometimes, however, a simple majority can be misleading. Overs that had at least 70% of the public betting beat the posted Total 9 times and lost (went Under) 14 times. In all, in betting matchups with a majority of at least 70% on the Over, the public was correct 39.13% of the time. Overs that had less than 50% of the public betting (in other words, the public majority bet the Under) beat the posted Total four times and lost (went Under) four times. In all, in betting matchups with a majority of the public betting on the Under, the public was correct 50% of the time.

Final Analysis: Week 2 Betting Totals

Analyzing the Week 2 college football betting Totals data reveals that betting against the extreme (at least 70%) majority (contrarian betting) on Totals would have resulted in the very profitable winning rate of 60.87%. This was not the case in Week 1. We will continue to monitor contrarian betting in Week 3.