2014 College Football Picks Week 5 Totals

College football “Totals” betting is not as popular as betting on point spreads (sides), but the well-informed Totals bettor can do quite well. There were 54 FBS college football games played in Week 5. This article summarizes some of our analysis of the Totals betting in those games. In reading the percentages cited in this article, it is important to note that the breakeven point in college football betting is beating the spread at the rate of 52.38%. (The standard sportsbook requires $110 wagered for every $100 to be won.) Therefore, any percentage above 52.38% should be considered winning, while anything below 52.38% should be considered losing for any bettor’s college football picks.

Totals, aka Over/Unders

Each college football season, the public proves that is loves betting the “Over” for Totals. Whatever the reason, in 10 seasons leading up to this 2014 season (from 2004-2013), a majority of the public bet the Total Over in 86.2% of all college football games. Now that more college football teams are utilizing an up-tempo and/or no-huddle offense, betting the Over might look even more attractive. In Week 5 of this 2014 season, the Total went Over 23 times, the Total went Under 28 times, and there were 3 pushes (ties). Therefore (excluding the pushes), the Over was correct in 45.1% of the games.

Based on closing lines from 2004-2013, the average collegefootball Total was 53.33. Last season (2013-2014), that average went up to 56.77. The average Total in Week 5 of this season was 56.89. Looking for value in the Totals data prompted us to examine some extremes. For this week, when the Total closed at less than 50 points, the Over was correct AND incorrect six times while pushing once. Therefore, for those low Totals, the Over was correct 50% of the time. When the Total closed at 65 points or higher, the Over was correct AND incorrect four times, once again, 50%.

How the Public Bet

Noting how the public bets Totals in any given week can be revealing. Consistent with that historical tendency to bet Overs, Week 5 was no exception. A majority of the public bet the Over 90.74% of the time! In an effort to determine if that simple majority is misleading, we looked at Overs that had at least a 70% public majority. Those Totals went Over 13 times; Under 16 times, and pushed twice. By percentage, when at least 70% of the public bet on the Over, they were correct just 44.83% of the time in Week 5. When examining the opposite extreme, there were just three games where the Over had less than 50% of the public betting (which is to say that they bet the Under). Two went over and one pushed. Therefore, when a public majority bet the under, they were not right at all this week.

Week 5’s Betting Totals Final Analysis

Once again, the public bet the Over in droves, yet the Under was correct 54.9% of the time. With the onset of fall and its changing weather, coupled with more injuries as the season advances, it will be interesting to see if Under continue to be the right side.

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