At CollegeFootballWinning.com, we
pride ourselves on utilizing both betting data and on-field performance data to
make our college football picks. Betting “Totals” in college football is not as
popular as betting point spreads, but for those who have the expertise, the
Totals betting market can be at least as profitable. Week 2 of 2014 had 74
college football games on which there were posted betting lines, but only 64 of
those games had readily available Totals betting lines. This article serves as
a summary of the college football Totals betting data associated with those 64
games. The reader should understand that the breakeven point in standard college
football betting (which requires the bettor to wager $110 for every $100 in
desired winnings) is 52.38%. Any cited percentage greater than 52.38% should be
considered winning to the NCAA
football bettor, while any percentage less than 52.38% should be considered losing.
Overs and Unders
The public loves betting the “Over”
in college football. For a combined score in any matchup to go beyond the
posted Total seems easier for most people to envision. In fact, for the 10
seasons leading up to this 2014-2015 college football year (from 2004-2013),
for their NCAA football picks, a public majority bet the Over in 86.2% of all
of games. With college football teams employing more up-tempo, no-huddle
offenses than ever, betting the Over might seem even more appealing to the
average (perhaps, uninformed) college football bettor. In Week 2 of the college
football season, the Total went Over 32 times, the Under was correct 31 times,
and there was one “push” (i.e. a tie). Without the push, the Over was correct 50.79%
of the time.
For the 10 seasons leading up to
2014-2015, the average closing college football betting Total was 53.33. Last
season (2013-2014), that average moved up to 56.77. The average closing betting
Total in Week 2 of this season was 57.46. In pursuit of value, it might be
informative to explore some (relative) extremes in those posted totals. In Week
2 college football matchups where the closing betting Total was less than 50
combined points, the Over was correct three times and incorrect five. For those
low Totals, the Over was correct 37.5% of the time. In college football
matchups where the closing betting Total was at least 65 combined points, the
Over was correct eight times and incorrect six times. For those high Totals,
the Over was correct 57.14% of the time.
Public Betting
Tracking Totals results according
to how the public bets can be
revealing. The college football public’s love for Overs was evident once again
in Week 2. The public bet the Over in 85.94% of all Week 2 NCAA football games.
Sometimes, however, a simple majority can be misleading. Overs that had at
least 70% of the public betting beat the posted Total 9 times and lost (went
Under) 14 times. In all, in betting matchups with a majority of at least 70% on
the Over, the public was correct 39.13% of the time. Overs that had less than
50% of the public betting (in other words, the public majority bet the Under)
beat the posted Total four times and lost (went Under) four times. In all, in
betting matchups with a majority of the public betting on the Under, the public
was correct 50% of the time.
Final Analysis: Week
2 Betting Totals
Analyzing the Week 2 college
football betting Totals data reveals that betting against the extreme (at least
70%) majority (contrarian betting) on Totals would have resulted in the very
profitable winning rate of 60.87%. This was not the case in Week 1. We will
continue to monitor contrarian betting in Week 3.
