At CollegeFootballWinning.com, we pride ourselves on utilizing
both college football betting data and on-field performance data to
make our college football picks. Betting “Totals” in college
football is not as popular as betting point spreads, but for those
who have the expertise, the Totals betting market can be at least as
profitable. Week 1 of 2014 had 85 college football games on which
there were posted betting lines, but only 54 of those games had
readily available Totals betting lines. This article serves as a
summary of the college football Totals betting data associated with
those first 54 games of the NCAA football season. The reader should
understand that the breakeven point in standard college football
betting (which requires the bettor to wager $110 for every $100 in
desired winnings) is 52.38%. Any cited percentage greater than 52.38%
should be considered winning to the NCAA football bettor,
while any percentage less than 52.38% should be considered losing.
Overs and Unders
The public loves betting the “Over” in college football. For a
combined score in any matchup to go beyond the posted Total seems
easier for most people to envision. In fact, for the 10 seasons
leading up to this 2014-2015 college football year (from 2004-2013),
for their NCAA football picks, a public majority bet the Over in
86.2% of all of games. With college football teams employing more
up-tempo, no-huddle offenses than ever, betting the Over might seem
even more appealing to the average (perhaps, uninformed) college
football bettor. In Week 1 of the college football season, the Total
went Over 28 times, while the Under was correct 26 times. In all, the
Over was correct 51.85% of the time.
For the 10 seasons leading up to 2014-2015, the average closing
college football betting Total was 53.33. Last season (2013-2014),
that average moved up to 56.77. So far, the average closing betting
Total for this current NCAA football season is 56.87%. In pursuit of
value, it might be informative to explore some (relative) extremes in
those posted totals. In college football matchups where the closing
betting Total was less than 50 combined points, the Over was correct
five times and incorrect twice. For those low Totals, the Over was
correct 71.43% of the time. In college football matchups where the
closing betting Total was at least 65 combined points, the Over was
correct twice times and incorrect five times. For those high Totals,
the Over was correct 28.57% of the time.
Public Betting
Tracking Totals results according to how the public bets can
be revealing. The college football public’s love for Overs was
evident once again in Week 1. The public bet the Over in 81.13% of
all Week 1, 2014, NCAA football games. Sometimes, however, a simple
majority can be misleading. Overs that had at least 70% of the public
betting beat the posted Total 12 times and lost (went Under) 8 times.
In all, in betting matchups with a majority of at least 70% on the
Over, the public was correct 60% of the time. Overs that had less
than 50% of the public betting (in other words, the public majority
bet the Under) beat the posted Total three times and lost (went
Under) seven times. In all, in betting matchups with a majority of
the public betting on the Under, the public was correct 70% of the
time.
Final Analysis: Week 1 Betting Totals
Analyzing the Week 1 college football betting Totals data reveals
that betting Under the highest Totals and Over the lowest Totals
would have resulted in very profitable betting record of 10 wins and
4 losses (71.43%). Likewise, betting college football Totals with the
public majority in those extreme cases (at least 70% on the Over and
at least 51% on the Under) was also quite profitable. Following the
public betting with those college football picks for Totals in the 30
applicable games would have led the college football bettor to the
excellent winning rate of 63.33% in Week 1.
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